Life sciences · Therapeutics · Obesity

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. VKTX · NasdaqCM

Bankruptcy riskElevated riskBio cash runway (DD_Bio)

9.4mo

PIInneh rating

i

Current price

$37.79

13 Jul 2026 · FD market value $4.7B

Current fundamental fair value

$10.52

-72.2% model-to-market

12M fundamental target

$8.29

Event-tree expected fundamental value

Expected traded-market target

WITHHELD

Market repricing pack not calibrated

Adjusted pipeline value

$1.1B

After class and HHI reserves

Estimated liquidity runway

9.4 mo

Next catalyst in 2.6 months

Market target & valuation architecture

Fundamental value, expected traded price and authorization are kept separate.

Valuation spectrum

USD per fully diluted share

Fundamental distributionPremium persistence sensitivityCurrent price

The shaded premium band is a sensitivity analysis, not an official market target. A single expected traded-market price appears only after chronological calibration and authorization.

Authorization & model health

Production gate

45.9DATA QUALITY
MINIMUM 85

Deterministic runPASS

Point-in-time lineagePASS

Parameter calibrationFAIL

Market repricing validationFAIL

Material rights resolvedFAIL

Independent reviewFAIL

Current market / fundamental multiple: 3.59× · Multiple required to sustain current price at 12M fundamental value: 4.56×.

Current premium persistence

Diagnostic sensitivity only

Target-date capital structure

Prototype 12M event tree

12M funding gap$107.7M

Expected dilution2.5%

Expected FD shares127.10M

P10 / P50 / P90$1.37 / $9.26 / $10.35

Near-term catalyst funding gap is $0.0M. The separate 12-month gap arises because the company can reach the catalyst before exhausting its broader plan liquidity.

Pipeline audit

Program-level probability, commercial exposure and risk-adjusted value.

3 active valued programs

Asset / program	Stage	PTRS	Market friction	Peak issuer revenue	rNPV	Positive-value share
VK2735 subcutaneous - obesity GLP1_GIP · Launch m36 · H165	PHASE 3	62.4%	58.0%	$1.7B	$1.0B	90.3%
VK2735 oral - obesity GLP1_GIP · Launch m54 · H171	PHASE 2 COMPLETED	34.7%	62.0%	$777.4M	$111.6M	9.7%
VK3019 - obesity AMYLIN_DACRA · Launch m84 · H176	PHASE 1	10.9%	65.0%	$423.5M	−$20.3M	0.0%

Pipeline concentration

Gross value to equity bridge

Investment factor score

Unvalidated composite

The provisional score of 56 is a multi-factor quality and investability diagnostic. It is not a probability, expected return or authorized action label.

Solvency & financing

Liquidity is evaluated against a forward safety reserve, not cash zero.

Catalyst-linked financing

Projected cash and liquidity floor

USD millions · months from as-of date

Issuer-level scan

Base case

Estimated cash as of 13 Jul 2026$473.1M

Estimated runway9.4 months

Next catalyst30 Sep 2026

Funding gap to catalyst$0.0M

Expected catalyst-linked dilution0.0%

12M funding gap$107.7M

12M expected dilution2.5%

Runway crossing is measured against the liquidity floor. The chart marks the catalyst, the interpolated runway crossing and the 12-month target horizon.

Scenario laboratory

Deterministic stress diagnostics; not a confidence interval.

8 defined scenarios

Current-value stress comparison

Model value per FD share

Controls, data quality & audit

Everything investor-facing is subordinated to authorization and lineage.

Cryptographically identified run

Target-blocking conditions

11 reason codes

×Parameter Pack Not Empirically Calibrated
×Target Event Probabilities Not Empirically Calibrated
×Target Price Validation Not Performed
×Independent Target Review Not Approved
×Material Rights Unresolved
×Market Data Not Licensed For Production
×Data Quality Below Rating Threshold
×Cash Position Rolled Forward From Last Filing

Audit identities

Click to copy full digest

CodeHasha488044bf931…2fd9bda5

DataHash2f4c93edfe2b…40854556

OutHashcf8357a5b244…fb5478aa

ParameterHasha05b23fc7ad9…373aa5ab

PolicyHashd0049a07facc…a83fd7d3

RawDataHasheb43d7b5ba7a…41419a57

RunHash024b93e21d4c…942ae587

SnapshotHashd5ada72c2729…2594b136

SpecHash68806ed5882c…a51877ed

TargetPolicyHashf75ac3287164…cec2467e

TargetSpecHash403d4e3251e7…1f5ea8fe

Institutional disclosure. The computation is deterministic, but the clinical, commercial, financing, event-probability and market-repricing inputs are uncertain. This demonstration intentionally suppresses an expected traded-market target and an official BUY/HOLD/SELL action until empirical calibration, locked validation, data licensing, material-rights resolution and independent review are complete.

Commercial economics — summary

Program-level pricing, access, market share, issuer revenue and evidence status.

Commercial overlay

Commercial driver summary

Central estimates with P10–P90 modeled intervals

Asset / program	Price basis	Estimated net price	Gross-to-net	Payer access	Peak market share	Peak issuer revenue	Evidence status

Commercial economics — program detail

Patient funnel, pricing, access, adoption, competition, capacity and rights.

Selected: VK2735 subcutaneous

Patient & volume

Population-to-treatment funnel

Pricing & reimbursement

Price basis and realization

Access & adoption

Coverage and launch progression

Competition & lifecycle

Market pressure and protection

Capacity & rights

Execution constraints and issuer economics

Commercial economics — revenue bridge

Commercial assumptions are reconciled into issuer-attributable revenue.

Selected: VK2735 subcutaneous

Assumptions → issuer revenue

Deterministic bridge

#	Bridge item	Driver / operation	Value

Treatment-eligible patients—

Treated market—

Issuer-treated patients—

Peak issuer revenue—

Commercial economics — value reconciliation

Peak issuer revenue is traced through commercial PV, PTRS and development economics to rNPV.

Selected: VK2735 subcutaneous

Peak revenue → commercial PV → rNPV

Risk-adjusted program-value bridge

Valuation component	Amount	Role in the bridge

Commercial economics — evidence & coverage

Observed, derived and modeled information is separated from unavailable or unresolved evidence.

Selected: VK2735 subcutaneous

Evidence classification—

—

Data coverage—

—

Missing information—

—

Limitations—

—

Metric-level evidence register

Classification · coverage · limitation · provenance

Metric	Evidence class	Coverage	Missing / limitation	Provenance summary

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. VKTX · NasdaqCM

Market target & valuation architecture

Valuation spectrum

Authorization & model health

Current premium persistence

Target-date capital structure

Pipeline audit

Pipeline concentration

Investment factor score

Solvency & financing

Projected cash and liquidity floor

Issuer-level scan

Scenario laboratory

Current-value stress comparison

Controls, data quality & audit

Target-blocking conditions

Audit identities

Commercial economics — summary

Commercial driver summary

Commercial economics — program detail

Patient & volume

Pricing & reimbursement

Access & adoption

Competition & lifecycle

Capacity & rights

Commercial economics — revenue bridge

Assumptions → issuer revenue

Commercial economics — value reconciliation

Peak revenue → commercial PV → rNPV

Commercial economics — evidence & coverage

Metric-level evidence register

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Reports

Data & APIs