PIInneh · VKTX

Bankruptcy Risk

9.4 mo

● Elevated risk

Bio cash runway (DD_Bio)

VKTX

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. · Biotechnology

NASDAQ CM Real Time Price USD

37.79 0.00 (0.00%)

At close: Jul 13 at 4:00:00 PM EDT

37.79 0.00 (0.00%)

🌙 Overnight: 2:00:08 AM EDT

Market chart · PIInneh Quant Multi-horizon forecast · simulated intraday feed

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Previous Close37.79

Open37.42

Bid37.70 × 300

Ask37.88 × 400

Day's Range36.85 – 38.62

52 Week Range22.40 – 48.65

Volume3,684,215

Avg. Volume4,102,560

Market Cap (Intraday)4.70B

Beta (5Y Monthly)1.45

PE Ratio (TTM)n.m.

EPS (TTM)−3.55

Next Catalyst (est.)Phase 1 top-line data · Sep 30, 2026

Forward Dividend & YieldNone

Ex-Dividend DateN/A

1y Target Est8.29

Trend DirBearish

Daily Return Skew (3M)0.06

Daily Excess Kurtosis (3M)1.53

Price Momentum (3M)−6.48%

Gain / Loss Ratio (3M)1.37x

Superradiance Trend

41.27

INTRINSIC VALUE

$10.52

Gap : −72%

NEXT QUARTER EPS

−$1.00−$0.95−$0.90

Q3 FY2026E estimate

RATING

High Risk

Valuation Context & Signal Logic

Market price, intrinsic value, upside gap, Bankruptcy Risk, and rule-based investor signal

Quarter	Market Price	Intrinsic Value	Gap	Bankruptcy Risk	Signal
Q2 25	$28.40	$12.85	-54.8%	Medium Risk	Strong Sell
Q3 25	$24.85	$11.40	-54.1%	Medium Risk	Strong Sell
Q4 25	$33.10	$11.95	-63.9%	Medium Risk	Strong Sell
Q1 26	$37.95	$10.52	-72.3%	High Risk	Strong Sell

Market Price vs Intrinsic Value

Company quarterly performance

Quarter	Revenue	Net Income	EPS	Bankruptcy Risk	Growth Score
Q2 24	$0	-$22.0M	-$0.20
Q2 25	$0	-$65.0M	-$0.58	Medium Risk	22
Q3 24	$0	-$25.0M	-$0.23
Q3 25	$0	-$81.0M	-$0.72	Medium Risk	19
Q4 24	$0	-$36.0M	-$0.32
Q4 25	$0	-$98.0M	-$0.88	Medium Risk	17
Q1 26E	$0	-$108M – -$112M	-$0.93 – -$0.97	High Risk	14

PIInneh Jul 13, 2026 · 4:00 PM EDT

PIInneh rates VKTX πB (High Risk): fair value $10.52 vs $37.79 market

The PIInneh fundamental model values Viking Therapeutics at $10.52 per share, 72.2% below the $37.79 close, with a 12-month fundamental target of $8.29 (P10/P50/P90: $1.37 / $9.26 / $10.35). The πB grade reflects a pre-revenue pipeline, a short cash runway and expected dilution.

📊

PIInneh Jul 13, 2026 · 4:00 PM EDT

Cash runway model: 9.4 months, $107.7M 12-month funding gap

Estimated cash and investments of $473.1M against a modelled net burn of about $38.0M a month give a cash runway of 9.4 months (Bio cash runway, DD_Bio) and a 12-month funding gap of $107.7M. Model estimates, not reported figures.

💰

PIInneh Jul 13, 2026 · 4:00 PM EDT

Catalyst watch: Phase 1 top-line data expected by 30 Sep 2026

The next catalyst in the PIInneh calendar is Phase 1 top-line data, expected around 30 Sep 2026, about 2.6 months after the 13 Jul 2026 close.

🗓️

Company release Aug 2025

VENTURE-Oral Phase 2 results reported for the VK2735 tablet

VENTURE-Oral Phase 2 results for the oral VK2735 tablet showed weight loss of up to about 12% at 13 weeks, with notable discontinuations. Shares fell sharply after the data.

📉

Company release 2025

Phase 3 VANQUISH program of subcutaneous VK2735 in obesity begins

Viking began the Phase 3 VANQUISH program of once-weekly subcutaneous VK2735, its GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, in obesity.

🧪

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Biotech Evaluation

Biotech evaluation for VKTX

The PIInneh biotech evaluation for Viking Therapeutics is published: pipeline rNPV, probability of technical and regulatory success, cash runway and the πB (High Risk) rating.

Open the VKTX Biotech Evaluation

Statistics · Valuation & Risk Analysis

VKTX37.790.00 (0.00%)

Viking Therapeutics, Inc.

INDUSTRY : Biotechnology

Peer-Relative Valuation, Quality & Risk

Market Cap

$4.70B

▼ -57.3%38th pct

P/E (TTM)

n.m.

N.M.n/a

Cash & Investments

$473.1M

▼ -38.5%33rd pct

Cash Runway

9.4 mo

▼ -61.7%12th pct

Net Burn / Month

$38.0M

▲ +90.0%82nd pct

Price / Book

10.3x

▲ +19.5%61st pct

Company vs Industry Valuation

Headline valuation multiples versus the Biotechnology peer group. Revenue- and earnings-based multiples are not meaningful for VKTX (no revenue, net losses).

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Median	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Market Capitalization	$4.70B	$11.00B	$71.50B	▼-57.3%	38th	Fully diluted market value of $4.70B (≈124.4M FD shares); mid-sized within the peer set and far below the large-cap obesity incumbents.
Enterprise Value, EV	$4.23B	$10.40B	$69.80B	▼-59.3%	36th	Net cash of $473.1M puts EV below market value; the market prices the pipeline at about $4.2B.
P/E, TTM	n.m.	24.80x	31.60x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: net loss of $408M TTM. Peer figures cover profitable peers only.
Forward P/E	n.m.	19.70x	23.40x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: losses are modelled through FY2028E (FY2026E -$455M, FY2027E -$480M).
PEG, 5Y Expected	n.m.	1.35x	1.62x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: no positive earnings base from which to measure growth.
Price / Sales	n.m.	6.90x	9.40x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: no product revenue; first product revenue is modelled for FY2029E.
Price / Book Value	10.3x	4.10x	5.60x	▲+19.5%	61st	Trades at about 10.3× book equity of ≈ $0.46B; the premium is pipeline value not carried on the balance sheet.
EV / Revenue	n.m.	6.40x	8.80x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: revenue is zero in every period.
EV / EBITDA	n.m.	15.30x	18.10x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: EBITDA is negative (operating loss of $430M TTM).

Market-Based Measures

Price- and market-derived valuation metrics (13 Jul 2026 close of $37.79).

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Enterprise Value, EV	$4.23B	$69.80B	▼-59.3%	36th	Enterprise value is well below the peer median; net cash of $473.1M is deducted from a $4.70B market value.
Price / Earnings Ratio, P/E	n.m.	31.60x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: the company reports net losses.
Earnings per Share, EPS	-$3.55	$4.85	N.M.	9th	Diluted loss per share of $3.55 TTM, among the deepest in the peer set as Phase 3 spending ramps.
Dividend Yield	None	0.85%	N.M.	—	No dividend, as expected for a pre-revenue biotech; only the large-cap peers pay one.
Gross Dividend per Share	$0.00	$1.62	N.M.	—	No dividend is paid.
PEG Factor	n.m.	1.62x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: no earnings growth base.
Forecast PEG	n.m.	1.30x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: EPS is modelled negative through FY2028E.
Price / Sales Ratio, PSR	n.m.	9.40x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: no sales.
Price / Fair Value (PIInneh)	3.59x	1.45x	▲+147.6%	93rd	Market price is 3.59× the PIInneh fundamental fair value of $10.52 (-72.2%).
Sales per Share	$0.00	$28.40	N.M.	—	No product sales.
EV / EBITDA	n.m.	18.10x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: EBITDA is negative.
Net Debt	Net cash $473.1M	Net cash $1.20B	N.M.	41st	No material debt (no term loans); cash and investments of $473.1M are the only cushion against the burn.
EBITDA	≈ -$430M	$4.10B	N.M.	8th	Negative, close to the TTM operating loss of $430M.
Price / Book Value, P/BV	10.3x	5.60x	▲+19.5%	61st	Above the peer median; book equity is ≈ $0.96B.
Book Value per Share	$7.71	$24.30	▼-51.2%	31st	Book equity of ≈ $0.96B over ≈124.4M fully diluted shares.

Income Statement-Based Measures

Operating expense, R&D intensity and losses (TTM to Jun 2026). Model estimates · not reported figures.

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Revenue (TTM)	$0	$9.60B	N.M.	—	Revenue is zero in every period; Viking has no approved products.
R&D Expense (TTM)	$372M	$3.10B	▼-52.3%	34th	R&D rose from $101M (FY2024) and $268M (FY2025) to $372M TTM as the Phase 3 VANQUISH program scaled.
G&A Expense (TTM)	$58M	$1.45B	▼-71.0%	22nd	Lean overhead for a small clinical-stage team ($52M in FY2025).
R&D Intensity (R&D / Opex)	86.5%	41.0%	▲+72.0%	90th	Almost all spending goes to clinical development ($372M of $430M operating expense).
Operating Loss (TTM)	-$430M	$2.90B	N.M.	9th	Operating loss widened from -$140M (FY2024) and -$320M (FY2025).
Interest & Other Income (TTM)	$22M	$145M	▼-45.0%	37th	Investment income is the only income; it falls as cash is spent ($31M in FY2025).
EPS, income-statement version	-$3.55	$4.85	N.M.	9th	Diluted loss per share widened from -$1.01 (FY2024) and -$2.58 (FY2025).
Net Loss (TTM)	-$408M	$2.40B	N.M.	8th	Net loss of $408M TTM; the model projects -$455M for FY2026E and -$480M for FY2027E.

Balance Sheet-Based Measures

Liquidity, cash runway, burn, dilution and asset backing.

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Current Ratio	9.80x	4.60x	▲+113.0%	78th	Liquid balance sheet: mostly cash and short-term investments against modest current liabilities.
Acid Ratio / Quick Ratio	9.60x	4.20x	▲+128.6%	80th	Strong immediate liquidity; there is no inventory.
Cash & Investments	$473.1M	$3.80B	▼-38.5%	33rd	Estimated cash and investments at 13 Jul 2026, down from $702M at FY2025 year end.
12-Month Funding Gap	$107.7M	$45.0M	N.M.	85th	Modelled cash shortfall over the next 12 months at the current spending plan.
Expected Dilution (12M)	2.5%	1.8%	▲+56.3%	70th	FD shares are expected to rise from ≈124.4M to 127.10M over 12 months.
Share Count Growth (FY2022–Jun 2026)	+36.0%	+12.5%	▲+188.0%	84th	Shares outstanding rose from 86M (FY2022) to 117M as equity funded the pipeline.
Gearing	-49.3%	18.0%	N.M.	14th	Negative gearing reflects net cash; there are no term loans.
Price / Cash Ratio, market-cap	9.93x	12.40x	▼-12.1%	44th	Market value is about 9.9× cash and investments.
Price / Cash Ratio, per-share	9.94x	12.40x	▼-12.0%	44th	Per-share cash of $3.80 against a $37.79 share price.
Cash per Share	$3.80	$11.60	▼-48.6%	30th	$473.1M over ≈124.4M fully diluted shares.
Months to Zero Cash / Burn Rate	9.4 months	31.0 months	▼-61.7%	12th	Cash runway of 9.4 months (Bio cash runway, DD_Bio) is well short of the peer median: elevated risk.
Burn Rate	$38.0M/month	$22.0M/month	▲+90.0%	82nd	Net burn of about $38.0M a month (≈ $114M a quarter).
ROCE, year-end	-44.8%	9.5%	N.M.	10th	Negative: operating loss of $430M against ≈ $0.96B of equity capital.
Operating Cash Flow (TTM)	-$390M	$2.70B	N.M.	9th	Cash used in operations rose from -$95M (FY2024) and -$270M (FY2025) to -$390M TTM.
PIInneh Composite Score	56 / 100	62 / 100	▼-9.7%	38th	Composite score of 56/100 (data quality 45.9), held back by pre-revenue status and the funding need.
ROE	-42.5%	11.0%	N.M.	11th	Net loss of $408M against ≈ $0.96B of book equity.
Cash Decline (FY2024 → Jul 2026)	-47.6%	-8.5%	N.M.	9th	Cash and investments fell from $903M at FY2024 year end to $473.1M.
Debt	None material	$3.10B	N.M.	5th	No term loans; default risk comes from the funding need, not leverage.
Net Tangible Asset Value, NTA / Share	$7.71	$13.90	▼-42.0%	29th	Tangible backing is mostly cash and investments.
Tangible Shareholders’ Equity	≈ $0.96B	$9.80B	▼-54.3%	34th	Small equity base relative to larger peers.
Premium / Discount to NAV	+390.0%	+460.0%	▲+25.8%	61st	Shares trade at about 10.3× book; the premium reflects pipeline value not on the balance sheet.

Cash Flow-Based Measures

Cash burn and reinvestment intensity. Model estimates · not reported figures.

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Free Cash Flow, FCF	≈ -$390M	$2.10B	N.M.	8th	Negative free cash flow, close to operating cash flow of -$390M TTM.
Fixed Asset Spending / Depreciation	n.m.	1.20x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: capital spending is minimal for a clinical-stage company.
Operating Cash Flow / Operating Profit	n.m.	0.95x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: both are negative (-$390M cash flow vs -$430M operating loss TTM).
Price to Free Cash Flow, PCF	n.m.	26.80x	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: free cash flow is negative.
Free Cash Flow per Share	-$3.33	$3.40	N.M.	9th	About -$390M over 117M shares outstanding.

Risk, Return & Volatility Measures

Cost of capital, PIInneh valuation range, solvency and risk-adjusted return.

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Yield to Maturity, YTM	n.m.	5.10%	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: no debt outstanding.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC	11.80%	9.40%	▲+26.9%	85th	All-equity cost of capital with beta ≈ 1.45; higher than most peers.
Discounted Cash Flow, DCF	-72.2% downside	+4.0% upside	N.M.	4th	PIInneh fundamental fair value of $10.52 vs the $37.79 market price.
Discount Factor	0.573 (Yr 5)	0.640 (Yr 5)	▼-10.5%	15th	A higher discount rate cuts the present value of distant pipeline cash flows.
P10 / P50 / P90 Value	$1.37 / $9.26 / $10.35	—	N.M.	—	Even the P90 outcome ($10.35) is far below the $37.79 market price.
Volatility, period high-low	54.0%	41.0%	▲+38.5%	72nd	52-week range of $22.40–$48.65.
Sharpe Ratio	0.18	0.35	▼-46.1%	33rd	Weak risk-adjusted return: high volatility for a modest 1-year gain.
Bankruptcy Risk (DD_Bio)	Elevated · 9.4 mo	24.5 mo	▼-61.7%	12th	Bio cash-runway method for a clinical-stage biotech; 9.4 months of runway with a $107.7M 12-month funding gap.
Merton Distance-to-Default	n.m.	3.40	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: no debt; the risk is a funding shortfall rather than a default on liabilities.
Merton Probability of Default	n.m.	0.30%	N.M.	—	Not meaningful: see the cash runway measures instead.

Return-Series Risk Measures

Daily and annualized return, volatility, beta and alpha (1-year illustrative model feed to 13 Jul 2026).

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Daily Return	0.00%	+0.12%	▼-100.0%	45th	Flat close on 13 Jul 2026 (0.00%).
Mean Daily Return	+0.12%	+0.05%	▲+145.8%	70th	Average daily return over the year is above the peer median.
Daily Sigma / Daily Volatility	3.65%	2.60%	▲+45.8%	90th	Typical daily moves are large, as expected for a clinical-stage biotech.
Annualized Volatility	57.9%	41.3%	▲+45.8%	90th	Annualized risk is well above the peer median.
Daily Sharpe Ratio	0.029	0.022	▲+32.0%	60th	Daily risk-adjusted return slightly above peers.
Annualized Sharpe Ratio	0.46	0.35	▲+31.7%	59th	Annualized from the daily figure; the period-return Sharpe is lower.
Annualized Return	+14.6%	+9.8%	▲+48.8%	64th	From $32.98 a year earlier to $37.79.
Beta 1Y vs S&P 500	1.45	1.02	▲+42.2%	86th	More sensitive to market moves than the typical peer.
Alpha 1Y Annualized vs S&P 500	-2.33%	+0.80%	N.M.	41st	Below the CAPM-implied return for a beta of 1.45.
Tracking Error 1Y	53.5%	34.5%	▲+55.1%	91st	Returns are driven mostly by company-specific clinical news.
Max Drawdown	-37.3%	-33.0%	▲+12.9%	66th	Deepest fall came with the August 2025 sell-off after the oral VK2735 Phase 2 data.
Valid Return Count	252 days	250 days	▲+0.8%	72nd	Return series is complete for the year.
Period High-Low Volatility	54.0%	41.0%	▲+38.5%	72nd	Wide trading range ($22.40–$48.65).

Advanced Return-Series Measures

Higher-order risk-adjusted and up/down-capture statistics (illustrative model feed).

Measure	VKTX	Ind. Avg	vs Median	Peer Percentile	Interpretation
Jensen’s Alpha	-2.33%	+0.80%	N.M.	41st	Return below the CAPM-implied level for its beta.
Treynor Ratio	0.071	0.068	▲+4.3%	52nd	Excess return per unit of market risk is close to the peer median.
Sortino Ratio	0.24	0.52	▼-51.8%	30th	Weak return relative to downside volatility.
Calmar Ratio	0.39	0.45	▼-11.0%	45th	Modest return relative to its worst drawdown.
Omega Ratio	1.10	1.09	▲+2.3%	48th	Upside and downside return mass are roughly balanced.
Downside Deviation	42.7%	25.5%	▲+70.8%	88th	Higher downside volatility than peers, which is unfavourable.
Value at Risk, VaR	4.86%	4.20%	▲+18.6%	84th	One-day 95% historical VaR is above the peer median.
Conditional VaR, CVaR	8.60%	6.10%	▲+45.8%	88th	Average tail loss is large; single-day moves of 20%+ occur on clinical news.
R² vs Benchmark	0.16	0.24	▼-30.1%	18th	Only a small share of return movement is explained by the market.
Active Return	+1.60%	+2.20%	▼-27.3%	47th	Slightly above an assumed +13.0% benchmark return; below the peer median.
Up Capture Ratio	148.0%	108.0%	▲+38.1%	84th	Rises more than the benchmark in up periods.
Down Capture Ratio	156.0%	104.0%	▲+52.9%	88th	Falls further than the benchmark in down periods, which is unfavourable.
Capture Spread	-8.0%	+4.0%	N.M.	31st	Down capture exceeds up capture.
Rolling Alpha	-1.80%	+0.60%	N.M.	38th	Excess return is negative on most rolling windows.
Rolling Sharpe	0.41	0.33	▲+28.1%	56th	Rolling risk-adjusted return is uneven across windows.
CAGR	+43.6%	+11.20%	▲+305.4%	90th	Five-year compound rate from about $6.20 (illustrative feed); most of the gain came in early 2024.
Terminal Wealth	$6.10	$1.62	▲+276.5%	92nd	Ending wealth assuming $1 invested five years earlier; $6.10 means every $1 grew to $6.10.
Hit Ratio	46.2%	50.5%	▼-8.5%	35th	Fewer up days than the typical peer; gains came in larger moves.

Valuation Context & Signal Logic

Company quarterly performance

PIInneh rates VKTX πB (High Risk): fair value $10.52 vs $37.79 market

Cash runway model: 9.4 months, $107.7M 12-month funding gap

Catalyst watch: Phase 1 top-line data expected by 30 Sep 2026

VENTURE-Oral Phase 2 results reported for the VK2735 tablet

Phase 3 VANQUISH program of subcutaneous VK2735 in obesity begins

Correlation Matrix

Biotech evaluation for VKTX

Company vs Industry Valuation

Market-Based Measures

Income Statement-Based Measures

Balance Sheet-Based Measures

Cash Flow-Based Measures

Risk, Return & Volatility Measures

Return-Series Risk Measures

Advanced Return-Series Measures

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